A harsher dry season tests Indonesia's fire strategy

 Indonesia is moving early to reinforce its defenses against forest and land fires as signs of a prolonged dry season emerge sooner than usual, sharpening risks across the archipelago’s most vulnerable landscapes.

The season has yet to peak, but its fingerprints are already visible. Soil moisture is falling, peatlands are drying, and rainfall has become increasingly scarce in several regions.

Forecasts point to what could be one of the lowest precipitation levels in three decades, extending the dry spell while intensifying pressure on forests and peat ecosystems.

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) expects the dry season to expand from mid-year and peak between July and September 2026, when much of the country will enter its most fire-prone phase.

Prolonged dryness allows heat to build and moisture to dissipate, creating conditions in which fires can ignite, spread, and persist more easily.

In peat-rich areas, the threat often develops out of sight. Vegetation withers, soils lose water, and peat begins to store heat beneath the surface. Fires can smolder underground before erupting into fast-moving blazes that are difficult to contain and capable of crossing boundaries.

This year’s risks reflect shifting climate patterns already visible since early in the year when rainfall became less frequent than normal.

The challenge is no longer a routine dry season but a combination of extended drought and reduced precipitation that raises fire risks from the outset, particularly in peatland regions.

Six provinces remain at the center of concern: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan.

What binds them is not geography alone, but the presence of vast peatlands that, once dry, become highly combustible. Fires here do not merely burn on the surface; they travel underground, endure for long periods, and often re-emerge when conditions allow.

Early warning signs have already appeared. Regions such as Riau have begun recording hotspots even before the dry season reaches its peak, underscoring that Indonesia’s forest fires are not random events but recurring patterns shaped by climate cycles and land-use pressures.

Indonesia, however, is not starting from scratch. In 2025, burned areas totaled about 213,984 hectares, down from 376,805 hectares a year earlier. The contrast is even starker with 2019, when fires consumed more than 1.6 million hectares.

Hotspot data tell a similar story. Around 2,705 hotspots were recorded in 2025, down more than 90 percent from 29,341 in 2019. The gains reflect better governance, tighter monitoring, and stronger community involvement, alongside peatland restoration and coordinated patrols in high-risk areas.

Together, these shifts mark a move away from reactive firefighting toward a more preventive, system-based approach.

Yet success has raised the bar. As climate pressures intensify, past gains offer reassurance but no guarantee. The system must now prove itself under more extreme conditions.

Prevention, enforcement, and consistency

Indonesia’s strategy is increasingly anchored in prevention as its first line of defense. Regional governments are being urged to declare emergency alert status early, allowing faster responses and quicker mobilization of central resources.

The logic is simple. Many large fires begin as small, unmanaged hotspots. Provinces such as Riau and West Kalimantan have begun acting ahead of worsening conditions, signaling a more anticipatory posture.

In Riau, authorities are deploying weather modification to maintain peatland moisture, seeding clouds to induce rainfall before drought reaches critical levels. This reflects a shift from extinguishing fires to preventing them.

West Kalimantan is focusing on intensive patrols, field monitoring, and stronger inter-agency coordination. Attention extends to early indicators such as peat water levels, as fire risks rise sharply when groundwater drops below safe thresholds.

A data-driven approach is increasingly replacing older, reactive practices.

Still, technical measures alone are not enough without firm enforcement. Authorities are stepping up efforts to ensure accountability, particularly among companies, with several already facing environmental disputes linked to land fires.

The message is clear. Land burning is a violation that will be pursued without compromise.

Communities are also being positioned at the front line. Fire-aware groups are being strengthened to detect hotspots early, especially in remote areas beyond the reach of formal monitoring. Their effectiveness, however, depends on sustained support, including training, equipment, and incentives.

Indonesia’s fire management now rests on three pillars: technology, community engagement, and law enforcement. Together, they form a layered defense designed to close gaps across a vast landscape.

The challenge lies in consistency. Differences in regional capacity, local economic pressures, and sheer geographic scale can weaken implementation. In extreme conditions, a single missed hotspot can escalate into a wider crisis.

This year’s prolonged dry season is therefore more than a climatic event. It is a test of how far Indonesia has come in confronting a recurring threat. The country is no longer where it was a decade ago. Its approach is more mature, coordinated, and grounded in experience.

The gains of 2025 show that prevention can work, not just in theory but in reducing fires and limiting their impact. As climate pressures mount, that foundation will be critical.

Under increasingly cloudless skies, Indonesia’s response is no longer purely reactive. It is evolving into a system capable of reading early signals, acting faster, and containing fires before they spread.

With clearer policy direction and stronger coordination, Indonesia is signaling a shift. Forest fires are no longer merely an annual crisis but a risk that can be managed, provided prevention remains at its core.